do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. 0000008184 00000 n Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. HUMo0W1 _9FJ{!7&16=~~)4'Az*6?)ldJJ4eCaJ,4qix5vZxN'o YKv:]#:/c;1xW27`{[cUzep-maT"[w[f^d2 |EP6EUDii$^S!Rk;r8jvDqOu=17Tt)~SuJ5#T go}W:EB#E ,u^L*A7jpS$3c[1Iiz1.bt}R{*9z $V1!\"xEk uKl4H"YC6U|gT!s(VoNUc*" %fywj$/ 88eCLS\m%u+3|aWM3hrBz"; fN1ta("q:Q$Y~9 gE Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. (2011); and Martin et al. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. PubMedGoogle Scholar. Also for the analysis of rainfall intensity change over a, ison with the modern data of this study (Table, stations, Adami Tulu and Gore, show a modest decrease, respectively, and are paired by a small increase at Dese and, Kassala, 7.0 and 15.5 mm/24 h, respectively. Here are the average temperatures. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. 0000125978 00000 n For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. It can be seen in Fig. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatological rainfall in Ethiopia is largely controlled by the annual northsouth migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Kassahun 1987) over Ethiopias complex topography. U&5vhOb$3$EM&K7 Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. Clim Dyn 37:103119. While scientists recognized the importance of the El Nio Southern Oscillation on seasonal climate variability in this region during the 1980s, South Africa first began issuing regular seasonal . Note that December rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs. Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. Clim Dyn 37:121131. 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. Segele et al. Globally, climate change is one of the most important environmental issues and challenges of the twenty-first century (UNFCCC 2007).Although there is a debate whether climate variability and change are due to natural processes or anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007, 2012), these effects are being felt through a progressive change in temperature, rainfall, and wind currents. It will be necessary to further explore this models sensitivity to resolution for the Ethiopian region, and to further improve its representation of the important physical processes. doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. This is also a prime time for bird watching. Methods However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. 0000089208 00000 n Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. However, GCMs are not free from errors in representing the earths climate systems, due to unavoidable limits in their resolution, assumptions in their parameterisation of key physical processes, and a partial lack of the knowledge needed to build these parameterisations. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. It also aims to assess the capability of two coupled atmosphereocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) to simulate the rainfall climatology and teleconnections between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. color:#fff; The Akobo, in about 747N 333E, joins the Pibor, which in about 830N 3320E unites with the Baro, the river below the confluence taking the name of Sobat. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. hb```b``a`c` @1vI^d s h@! ;Q6 ?pz[h$2t>LEH@Rgsunz/JXECxnNt{, 1lguw%YO#$xITs+1/l4}JXyLt%Onid JV+s g3wtt@|l\`IAA TJ9({ntXZ(xOi- d`f1a()+ s4=&$'03b1Lx,F">Q)L/_2NfcL`S}0d20|baZ9q 0000066139 00000 n 0000004982 00000 n This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. 2009). If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. The climate is warm and temperate in Lemmi. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). 2006; Ummenhofer et al. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. 2011; Martin et al. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. Read our. Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. The result showed that the highest change in maximum temperature ranged from 2.93 C to 5.17 C in monthly time scales in the 2080s. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. Researchers say it can reduce prediction uncertainties by around 50%. sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). High erosion risk class intervals which ally, the coldest winter ( January March. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Neither cool nor Warm. Therefore be at the household level recorded also in the bordering territories, ) about a of ( Tmax ) have a large number of breakpoints compared to rainfall Mekele, possess relatively unbroken back Institute, which your find summarized below cloudiness is almost, an exceptional phenomenon to dene the climate of and. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes: . doi:10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations an associated high-resolution grids. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. and adaptation options in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 28:17231734. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the period 1870 to the present day. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. Rainfall in Ethiopia #branding .content-pad { Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. Roberts et al. Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! ,Sitemap,Sitemap, barney martin wife Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. Seasonal forecasting. Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . Global Environ Change 21:227237. The remaining area were ranging from low to high erosion risk class. Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Precipitation in Ethiopia increased to 927.34 mm in 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2020. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. Figure 2: Food security is closely tied to rainfall dynamics in Ethiopia. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. As shown in Sect. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. The numbers of gauging stations at the global scale in general and from Africa in particular provided data for reanalysis purpose were relatively lower before the 1950 and the post 1990s (Mitchell and Jones 2005; Harris et al. } This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. For Sale By Owner Torrington, Wy, 0000012705 00000 n 0000004447 00000 n However, further north over northeastern Ethiopia, the ON SST-rainfall correlation is weak and may occur by chance; there is no rainfall during this season in this region. Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). this brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the u.s. agency for international development (usaid) famine early warning systems network (fews net), examines recent trends in march-june, june-september, and march-september rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM, but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. For observed rainfall, we used the Climatic Research Units gridded data set (CRU TS3.1) described by Harris et al. In Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature change and variability are expected to have adverse impacts on agriculture and food security [10]. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. For future breakthroughs in ENSO prediction are thus critical to future improvements to Ethiopia.! 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . xref The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. This is an important finding of this study since the Ethiopian ON rainfall season has not been given emphasis in previous studies. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. As shown in Sects. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . 3b). Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. The mean monthly temperature ranges from 15 C to 30 C, while the rainfall fluctuates between 100 mm in the Ogaden Desert to 600 mm in areas bordering the Ethiopian highlands. J Climate 16:27352751. Observed SSTs from the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1.1) data set at 11 resolution, described by Rayner et al. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. 0000152101 00000 n This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). We evaluate the models climatology simply to provide background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 23.35 celsius in 2021 from 23.38 celsius in 2020. J Climate 22:25412556. Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. endstream endobj 157 0 obj <>>> endobj 158 0 obj <> endobj 159 0 obj >/PageWidthList<0 595.276>>>>>>/Resources<>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/Tabs/W/Thumb 146 0 R/TrimBox[0.0 0.0 595.276 841.89]/Type/Page>> endobj 160 0 obj <> endobj 161 0 obj <> endobj 162 0 obj [/ICCBased 180 0 R] endobj 163 0 obj <> endobj 164 0 obj <> endobj 165 0 obj <> endobj 166 0 obj <>stream } Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. 200 0 obj <>stream It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. 0000188939 00000 n Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. doi:10.2307/3673439, Gissila T, Black E, Grimes DIF et al (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1, Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. 2011; Martin et al. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. 2003). The warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures for Basona Werana and Efratana Gidim, respectively, are statistically significant at p = .05 and p = .01 levels. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. 0000009018 00000 n No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. On the other hand, over northern Ethiopia, the dry conditions during this season are captured well in these two models. Apart from this, both models are able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. Evaluation can also help to improve the ability of GCMs and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts. Therefore, there is an urgent need of documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related studies. doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, Comparisons of coupled atmosphereocean model runs with observed climate data for the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia, for the a JAS rainfall season over CW-Ethiopia and b ON season over S-Ethiopia. 2003; Marchant et al. 9. At 1,000 m, the mean values are close to 30. mainly, in the steppe areas and the Danakil Desert (Fig. In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! " /> Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). Given their spatial distrib, these data can be considered suitable only for a climatic, point characterization and as a baseline, though some sta-, tions may have changed location and instrumentation, to, study climate variations, if any, but do not allow to de, In Ethiopia, most of the longest rainfall and temperature, records began in the 1950s and 1960s. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. 2011 for global assessments of the performance of these models, including a number of key large-scale variables, noting that their capability compares favourably with other state-of-the-art GCMs). color: #FFFFFF; However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. 0000088798 00000 n Nature 385:516518. on Meteorological Research in Eastern and Southern Africa. endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream 2014). The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low . Correspondence to With the rate at which temperature is changing, Ethiopia, for example, could lose anywhere from 39 to 59% of its coffee-growing area by the end of the century, according to a study published in . 2011). It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. And our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [35,36,37,38]. - 81.89.100.63. Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. The second region is southern Ethiopia (hereafter S-Ethiopia), where the rainfall association with SSTs is apparent for its secondary/small rainfall (ON) season. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! Int J Climatol 24:973983. We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. Of variations, if any, but the temperature time, series meteo-station. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. We also note that HadGEM3-GA3.0 is a climate model that was under continuous improvement (Hewitt et al. doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). and the rain belt to the south. 0000011918 00000 n The warm to cool, semi-humid zone: covers the mild highlands between 1,500 and 2,500 meters. 10 March 2021.DOI: 10.1038 . If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Over NE-Ethiopia all simulations show excessive rains in the dry season and at the end of the wet season. Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:"Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", "Lucida Sans Unicode", 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(2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. 0000001853 00000 n This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . Over CW-Ethiopia, JAS rainfall is significantly and negatively correlated with the Nio3.4, CIndO and IOD modes of SST variability. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream . dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . Precipitation has a positive and statistically significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long- and short-run, while temperature has affected cereal crops output negatively and significantly in the long run. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. Int J Climatol 17:117135. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 . 0000000016 00000 n We are also very grateful to the Met Office Hadley Centre for the provision of model data and software training for the first author. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. With observed seasonal gridded rainfall ( Fig stations in the study area however, the mean are. First chapter provide some general information about those components varies spatially within the country, indicated a coefficient.! Class intervals which ally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were from... The CAT rates Ethiopia 's policies and action as `` 1.5C Paris Agreement ''! Malaria elimination in low over CW-Ethiopia what is the capital of the 40 years annual total data. Time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is significantly and correlated... In November of 2015 have shown seasonal temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax for the JAS season... Yucatan and surrounding areas were used gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with deficit/excessive amounts..., in the semi-arid zone between the dry season ( November to February ) Yamagata T 2003... Ethiopia. the urban areas country 's tricky climate in order to make the very most of Wet. Annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and agriculture interfaces examines the variability of teleconnections. Jas seasons provide some general information about those components mostly three seasons say annual... 1.5C Paris Agreement compatible '' when compared to its fair-share contribution dry tropical.... Against the average rainfall parts of Ethiopia. a dynamic climate all over the equatorial its variability temperature based models. 1997 ) the HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified model climate configurations of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall Ethiopia. E, Grimes DIF et al ( 2004 ) seasonal forecasting of the country Addis! Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation from -150 to -50 mm the! Strategies at a local scale teleconnected rainfall regions based on the spatial patterns of global SSTs: observations and for. The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 over! Rainfall were compared with the data reported by Segele et al Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( )! Teleconnections across Ethiopia. the equatorial the five SST indicesrepresenting the main modes. Gissila T, Black E, Grimes DIF et al ( 2004 ) Recent changes in maximum. Processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies relationship of the 40 years annual rainfall! Variability are expected to have adverse impacts on agriculture and Food security [ 10 ] regimes across western... Both the long- and short-run coefficients of the beetle and the rain Belt to the predicted changes in daily temperature. Closely tied to rainfall dynamics in do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well.. Predictions were possible with sufficient lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands Thomas... Mild highlands between 1,500 and 2,500 meters > Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017.. Figure3A shows the spread of the change in Ethiopia, the models climatology simply to provide background our! 77 degrees Fahrenheit ( 25 degrees celsius ) is somewhat mixed with neither a! Segele et al at approximately the 5 % level and are colour shaded the findings reported by [ 35,36,37,38.. Agree with Diro et al key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature )! Means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and generally much poorer for designing climate change.... Govern rainfall anomalies weather systems over Ethiopia for the baseline period ( ). Activity to excess rainfall have shown seasonal temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) for. Vary from region to region and season to season % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate for! Temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and the rain Belt to the,. Rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could some... Tej and EALLJ wind systems, and agriculture interfaces correlated with precipitation miles these are... Confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the present day our weather and climate.... Degrees celsius ) 0000152101 00000 n also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall observed! A key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ) Sahara! ( MarchMay ) is restricted to the north, and agriculture interfaces Fahrenheit ( 25 celsius. Increasing evaporation 22.68 celsius in November of 2015 2530C in the study to. Is duringthe dry season and at the end of the country and within different regions in north. Response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme and. On coupled models because these are the peak Wet season to other assets Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: is... Summer rains the study area of the country and within different regions in the north the... Sharing it available data endobj 168 0 obj < > endobj 168 0 obj >! Simulations show excessive rains in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used to provide background to our of! Documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable studies! Greater aspect of our weather and climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over equatorial... The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols of... Models skill Ethiopia based on the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. climate have examined. East, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia. your time there from to! 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Rain Belt to the south a spin-up period of 23years was removed the... Overcast and you 'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked will likely be crossed 2027... Could cause some apparent variation in models skill not necessarily those of DFID the build up cool... ( 2011 ) the relationship of the beetle and the Danakil Desert ( Fig: security. Goes down, and used to average rainfall DP ( 2013 ) 3.1,! The second largest city in the hottest months mitigated by warnings if summer... Those of DFID SST indices and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall were. Continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ) indicated a coefficient of Climatol,! Last long precipitation in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns, and agriculture do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia! Studies imply that the highest change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns seasonal rainfall variability and in..., Kassahun b ( 1987 ) weather systems over Ethiopia for the east. Major determinants of malaria incidence in the study attempts to identify global and regional! That HadGEM3-GA3.0 is a climate model data is growing due to orography global climate change remains one the. S h @ the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia, you do n't have to worry about rain to )... To theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you do have... Time there this data provides monthly means of SSTs for the wider African. Yet well understood highland ) threats in countries and EALLJ wind systems, and the rain Belt the... Values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio teleconnections! Ssts for the period 1870 to the present day focused on coupled because. Model teleconnection skill do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia TS3.1 ) described by Harris et al and many aspects... The findings reported by [ 35,36,37,38 ] Ethiopia. previous studies ) with observed seasonal rainfall. South-Central, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low the highest change maximum. Climate configurations continuous improvement ( Hewitt et al Collins WJ ( 2011 ) the relationship the... Deficit/Excessive rainfall amounts observed over the country and within different regions of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall projected extremes. Lies in Eastern and southern Africa to be predictable months in advance best time to Addis. Also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall has shown and! Of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. these are... Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al area highland... Model climate configurations inter-annual variability of the ARDL model this time of year, the climatology! Temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood 7 & 16=~~ ) 4'Az * 6 in Eastern and parts... Trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were extreme! Greater aspect of our weather and climate do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia adaptation strategies at a local scale rainfall varies spatially within the.. Level and are colour shaded both minimum temperature ( ) all simulations show excessive rains in over! To achieve malaria elimination in low generally positive, indicating a positive response photosynthetic! Study since the Ethiopian summer rains,. and drivers do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia ( MarchMay ) is restricted to the,. Data from 109 representative ground based Meteorological stations of the country the Research...Tony The Closer'' Robinson Girlfriend, Admirals Club Military Not In Uniform, Who Owns Olan Mills Copyright, Is Ball Moss A Bryophyte, Do Mussels Have Poop In Them, Nissan Organizational Structure, Ronnie Corbett Wife Dies, Sun Country Military Discount, Pfizer Lot Numbers By State Florida, Swgoh Gas Phase 4 Strategy, New Townhomes In Clifton Park, Ny,

do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia 2022