Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. Emmitt Smith 4. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Without the volume, it is going to be difficult to get decent fantasy numbers. I am a heretic in that regard. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Green Bay seems to like A.J. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Jeff Haseley: It's easy to succumb to the notion that Saquon Barkley is one of the best running backs in the league. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. But drafting him as a high-upside No. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). His value is trending in the wrong direction. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. Pat Fitzmaurice: The Buccaneers' playoff run was the best four-game stretch for Fournette since the early part of the 2019 season. Its a knock on his offensive line. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. His fantasy value was bolstered late in the year due to an insane usage rate in the passing game, seeing a whopping 8.6 targets per game when Alex Smith started. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. The Raiders are sure to recoup as much production as they can on the $8.5 million guarantee they gave Drake on a two-year deal, so this will look closer to a committee than a true lead-back situation. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. Brown should have a role, most likely on early downs and at the goal-line, which would sink Gaskins chances of living up to his ADP. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. Taysom Hill had nine carries from inside the opponent's five-yard line to Kamara's 15 in 2021 and won't be removed from the Saints' red-zone plans any time soon. Is he more talented than Melvin Gordon III at this point in their respective careers? His current draft price is almost his upside. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. 3 back on the depth chart before the first preseason game. Single Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Jordan McNamara: Like Gaskin, David Johnson is in a cloudy situation after Philip Lindsay drew the starting role in Houston in week 1. Adrian . . Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Jordan McNamara: The news on Saquon Barkley does not reassure me. Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. 54 touchdowns. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Overall: 98 and 96. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. 5 / 30. That is still great, but not quite as good as many people have him ranked. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Single James Brimacombe: Once Kenyan Drake was out of the picture, we shot Edmonds up the draft board naturally. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. Henry is one of my favorite players in the league, but there are preferable first-round picks for me in 2021. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. Chase Edmonds, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB23. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. Wait until next year. We've seen J.D. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league to put up those huge numbers over that finishing stretch. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. J.D. Yep. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. The Top Ten 1 David Beckham David Robert Joseph Beckham is (born 2 May 1975) is an English former professional footballer, the current president & co-owner of Inter Miami CF and co-owner of Salford City.. Ryan Hester: He might not keep his job, his offense probably wont be great, hes not explosive, and hes on the wrong side of the running back career arc. As well as he played in the postseason, Fournette is still an inefficient committee back ticketed to share work with Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB39 | Consensus Projections RB47. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. Compared to Jim Brown (5.2 YPC), Larry Csonka (4.3 YPC), and Earl Campbell (4.3 YPC). David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Jeff Haseley: We know what Saquon Barkley is capable of, but we haven't seen him perform much in Jason Garrett's offense under Joe Judge's rule. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Miami will use a committee as none of the backs on the roster can handle the lead-back role. His current draft price is almost his upside. Jones was the better, more efficient runner during the 2020 regular season, and Bernard seems destined to be Tampa's primary passing-down back. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. Back up Share project Close 2022 hyundai sonata limited interior; what is birkenstock oiled leather; bates high gloss duty oxford; most overrated running backs of all time. Single Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. Curtis Martin 11. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? In addition, teammate Gus Edwards just signed a two-year, $10M contract extension in June, so he isnt going anywhere any time soon. I understand the upside, but I don't want to take a huge miss if I'm drafting in Week 1. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + LaDainian Tomlinson 6. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. A new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh also adds uncertainty to the situation. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Jamal Lewis 18. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. 5. Nobody should ever try to run like Barry Sanders, because they will never be Barry Sanders. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? He has good hands, but his route running hurt his opportunities to make clean catches against man-to-man coverage. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. I definitely do not want the most expensive option here (Carter), but Coleman and Johnson are arbitrage plays. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. 24 Overrated RBs. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Every NFL team's most overrated player of all time Jarrett Bailey 12/21/2021 180K donated to doctor who preformed 10-year-old girl's abortion to help with legal costs, security. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. Lambertville, Michigan 48144. most overrated running backs of all time(734) 854-2000 The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Walter Payton 5. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Downing, USA Today Sports. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. He was a reliable pass-protector, and had sure hands. Aaron Jones, Green Bay | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB6. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . Even if Winston wins the competition and keeps the New Orleans passing game afloat, Kamara will have a hard time repeating last year's 21 total touchdowns. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. Scoring at least once in 9 games (16 gms total) yields a 56% chance of a score in each game. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Johnson was once a big name at the running back position and is still getting drafted based on that name and past production. 15 receptions, 111 yards, less than a TD per year. Malcolm Brown should play plenty, and this offense isn't likely to be explosive enough to support two running backs in any meaningful way. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football Eric Dickerson 8. Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. He has lapses in vision and decision-making. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Fred Taylor I'm out. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. Marshall Faulk 7. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. Phil Alexander: The epic stretch-run that led Montgomery to an RB4 finish in 2020 came with Tarik Cohen sidelined and against the defenses of Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, respectively. Photo: Isaiah J. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option.
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